Post Brexit: UK's Economic Risks and the Future Ahead

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  The issue of ‘Brexit’, a portmanteau word of ‘Britain’ and ‘Exit’, means the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU). On June 23, 2016, the UK held a referendum, on whether to leave or remain in the EU. The result was a majority vote for their withdrawal from the EU. The withdrawal has only recently been actualized. ‘Bregret’, referring to the deep regret experienced by some individuals who voted in favor of Brexit. But how did the UK get to this point? The Dankook Herald (DKH), investigated.

¡ã Photo of Birmingham City Council Building (Photo from Yonhap News)

  The combination of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a significant blow to the UK economy. Unlike other European countries, the UK has been unable to recover its pre-COVID-19 economic stature. The withdrawal from the EU triggered a cascade of repercussions, such as global banks, multinational corporations, and a substantial number of workers from other EU countries leaving the UK. This has led to severe labor problems and, inflation affecting the UK economy. The Russia-Ukraine war caused a surge in international energy prices and accelerated inflation, causing trade disruptions and plunging the pound’s value. Consumer prices in the UK increased by 11.1% on the year, the highest level in 40 years. Amid this economic turmoil, the Trade Union Congress announced a strike of up to 500,000 people in the public sector, including teachers, civil servants, and railway workers. When prices soared and salaries stagnated, workers faced the brunt of these effects and turned to strikes as a means of voicing their concerns. The repercussions were felt across various sectors, with even nurses and paramedics participating in the strike, causing the healthcare system to collapse. Birmingham, the home of the Industrial Revolution and the UK’s second-largest city, declared bankruptcy on September 5, 2023, by issuing a ‘Section 114’ notice under the Local Government Finance Act. The action prohibits all expenditures except for essential services. Birmingham City Council said, it was about 87 million pounds short in its current year’s budget of 3.2 billion pounds. This deficit, in part, was attributed to the nation’s worsening economy that resulted in the city’s inability to fulfill retroactive payments of 760 million pounds to female workers, in compliance with the UK Supreme Court’s ‘equal pay’ rule required closing the wage gap between female and male workers.

  A majority of Britain now regrets its decision to leave the EU due to the aftereffects of the economic crisis in the UK. Furthermore, a demonstration against the UK’s exit from the EU was held in London on September 23, 2023. Thousands of people have joined the National Rejoin March, a grassroots campaign action group, in central London, that has expressed their discontent with leaving the EU and demanded Britain rejoin the EU. Protesters waved European Union flags and held up placards reading ‘The road to rejoin the EU starts here’ and ‘Rejoin, Rejoice.’ The Dankook Herald (DKH) interviewed Sinan, a Briton from Birmingham, about the economic situation of the UK. She shared that various aspects of business in the UK struggled during the start of Brexit and the economic situation rapidly declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Despite subsequent recovery efforts, the economy is still below its pre-Brexit vitality. The most noticeable deteriorations in the UK economy the volatile exchange rate and rising inflation costs. The UK’s endeavors to secure new trade agreements with countries like India and China have faced significant hurdles, but they have managed to make partnerships with countries they used to trade with. This is why she believes the decision to pursue Brexit was a mistake. Therefore, she expressed her desire for the UK to rejoin the EU for the benefits it brings to the economy such as rapprochement, visas for the EU, and a stable exchange rate.

¡ã Photo of Birmingham (Photo from Seoul Newspaper)

  On September 19, 2023, a group of academics, commissioned by France and Germany to explore future reforms for the European Union, put forward a vision of a more diversified EU membership structure that would expand the bloc including an EU Lite category tailored for countries like the UK. In the recent surge of regret sentiments within the UK, there is an analysis suggesting that the concept of EU Lite could serve as a more palatable ‘exit strategy’, fostering stronger collaborative ties with the EU while moving away from the protracted debates surrounding Brexit. Specifically, a vision for a future EU with four types of membership - Inner Circle, Current EU Members, Associate Members, and EU Lite Members - has been proposed by a group of commissioned academics. EU Lite, in particular, could provide a space for countries such as the UK, to be involve in political cooperation without being bound by EU laws and regulations. Furthermore, the report indicated that, given the differentiated membership based on the degree of participation and involvement, the financial contributions to the EU from such membership would be lower than those of Inner Circle or Current EU Members. In political circles, there is a growing emphasis on Brexit renegotiation led by the Labour party, with a particular focus on discussions about EU Lite. The British media and the public have shown significant interest in these deliberations. According to recent election polls, the leading opposition party, Labour, has shown a 15-20 percent lead over the ruling conservative party. Labour has positioned itself to use the renegotiation of Brexit as a political means, expressing its intention to engage in discussions with the EU and renegotiate Brexit terms if victorious in the upcoming general elections scheduled for the end of next year. In response to this, France and Germany are keenly attuned to the shifts in public opinion within the UK. On the other hand, Rishi Sunak, the Prime Minister of the UK has expressed his refusal to negotiate towards this new form of membership. A spokesperson for the Prime Minister's office underscored the government’s stance with a response briefly “No” to questions from reporters about whether he agrees with the proposal for EU Lite membership. Ultimately, responding to public opinion, the UK is contemplating a policy to strengthen collaboration across European countries. The outlook indicates that the decision will be influenced by future public opinion and election results in determining whether to renegotiate with the EU.

  Since the UK decided to exit the European Union, the economic depression has not let up. Other small local governments declared bankruptcy in advance of Birmingham and, there is a possibility that others may follow suit in the foreseeable future. With the economic depression in the UK continuing, global economic experts emphasize the necessity of forging a clear vision for the future, social infrastructure, and innovation to overcome the crisis. In addition, it needs to present political solutions that will be able to surmount this economic crisis.


ȫ俬, ¹è¼­¿¬, À±Èñ¿ø, Á¤¾Æ¿µ  dankookherald@gmail.com
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